Neil Hodgson column: Marc Marquez could walk away from MotoGP this year, Johann Zarco may win again at wet Le Mans

After the early exchanges, it feels like this weekend could finally be the end of the phoney war and the season could really start to shake out as Marco Bezzecchi tops the standings on his Aprilia.

We all expected to learn a lot in Jerez and then we had a chaotic, rainy weekend that was fantastic to watch, but didn’t signpost where things were headed. We might even have learned more from the testing sessions that followed it. This weekend in France, we may emerge with more ideas about what exactly is going on.

Having said that, there are mixed weather forecasts for Saturday afternoon and it looks almost certain to be raining on Sunday, so there could still be some surprises in store.

Of course, the inclement weather means there’s a real possibility that Johann Zarco could be victorious again after last year’s surprise victory here. He will definitely fancy his chances in the wet, because he’s one of the very best in those conditions. The most important factor right now for the Frenchman is that he qualifies well even if it’s in the dry, so he can exploit any opportunities.

Similarly, Marc Marquez is always good in the wet, so is Pedro Acosta. I also think it throws up a chance for Toprak and Jack Miller on the Yamahas. Fifth is as good as 17th to them this season, so if there is a chance of a podium place, they will go all-out for glory. For the rest of the pack who are angling for a decent season or a shot at the title, this might be the kind of race where they are happy to collect some points, avoid a crash and keep their powder dry.

As for Bezzecchi, I think he needs to show us just how good he can be in the wet. He should definitely be able to compete given the form he’s in and the Aprilia remains the bike to beat. In testing they were trying some more radical approaches with their aero and it looks very promising. So if it’s dry, Bezzecchi becomes the clear favourite and you can never rule out Marc.

His younger brother, Alex Marquez, was so impressive last weekend because he was strong throughout - from the first practice session to the final race. With the limited track time available, getting a good start to the weekend is crucial, otherwise you can find yourself playing catch-up and the best riders get away from you.

The BK8 Gresini win was obviously a morale boost for the Ducati team as their factory setup struggles, but I think while questions are inevitable because there are some mitigating factors. Unfortunately for Pecco Bagnaia, his form from last year hasn’t changed, he has been so disappointing. That means if Marc crashes - as he did last weekend - the team looks like it’s going nowhere. Marc has been inconsistent this season. Last year he masked over the factory team’s problems.

Alex, too, had an inconsistent start to the season but then he came good. The only consistent rider for any Ducati team has been Fabio Di Giannantonio, who has been impressive most weekends. The thing we have to point out, though, is that he’s in the last year of his contract so he’s riding for his career. It’s less of a surprise that he’s pulling out all the stops.

There’s no denying, though, that Marc Marquez has struggled this season. What we don’t know yet is if he’s battling through that injury still and he’ll come out just as competitive as he was. For now, he’s making mistakes at critical points of races in a way he has not done since 2015.

What he normally does is push the bike to its limit in practice sessions and find that edge by going over it a couple of times. Then he pulls back just behind it for the races.

Over the years, he’s been a hugely honest rider when interviewed. He’s made it clear that if his season is just third and fourth places, it holds no interest for him. It’s like Eric Cantona. When he retired, he was still better than most but he wasn’t happy with his standards so he packed up. If the season continues like this, it would be no surprise if he walked away at the end of the season. He’s not doing it for the money.

There aren’t many people who know how he feels. He has a tight-knit circle but one person who is in that is his brother. There is huge respect for them, of course, and there was in their title tussle last season. But if Alex has even an inkling that his brother thinks he is in decline, he won’t hold back from attacking him this weekend or for the rest of the season.

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