Arsenal will top the Premier League table at Christmas - but what does that mean for this season's title race?

Arsenal will top the Premier League on Christmas Day, ahead of Manchester City by two points. Holding pole position over the festive period often leads to the title, but Mikel Arteta has learnt this is not always the case, especially with Pep Guardiola's side on his heels. But how often does top spot on Christmas end in silverware, and what do the league positions signal for sides at the bottom?

Arsenal will be top of the Premier League table on Christmas Day this season as they pursue their first title in 22 years, having finished second in each of the last three campaigns.

Following their victory over Everton on Saturday night, the Gunners will have a two-point advantage over Manchester City on December 25. 

It is the third time in the last four years they will have led the top flight at Christmas - however, on both previous occasions, they were beaten to the title by Pep Guardiola’s men.

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Given this record, and with City closing the gap on Arsenal in recent weeks, Arteta’s side will be more aware than anyone that there is no room for complacency despite sitting in pole position at this time.

But historically, in the Premier League, how often do the teams at the summit of the division on Christmas Day go on to claim the silverware? 

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In the 33 Premier League seasons so far, the team that has topped the table at Christmas has gone on to win the title on 17 occasions (52%).

This was the case last season, with Liverpool winning the league in Arne Slot’s first campaign at Anfield, having led the way from early November.

But for Arsenal, during each of their three Premier League-winning campaigns, they have not been at the summit of the division on 25 December.

They were way down in sixth during the 1997/98 campaign, and occupied second place in both 2001/02 and their invincible season in 2003/04.

On all four occasions they have led at Christmas, they have failed to win the title, finishing second in 2002/03 and third in 2007/08, before being pipped twice by Guardiola under Arteta.

For a lengthy period following the Gunners’ latest title win, the position of teams at Christmas appeared to have a greater bearing on who would go on to lift the trophy.

In the 14 campaigns that followed, the occupant of top spot at Christmas went on to become champions 11 times (79%). 

Season	Champions	Position on Christmas
1992-1993	Manchester United	4
1993-1994	Manchester United	1
1994-1995	Blackburn Rovers	1
1995-1996	Manchester United	2
1996-1997	Manchester United	5
1997-1998	Arsenal	6
1998-1999	Manchester United	3
1999-2000	Manchester United	2
2000-2001	Manchester United	1
2001-2002	Arsenal	2
2002-2003	Manchester United	3
2003-2004	Arsenal	2
2004-2005	Chelsea	1
2005-2006	Chelsea	1
2006-2007	Manchester United	1
2007-2008	Manchester United	2
2008-2009	Manchester United	4
2009-2010	Chelsea	1
2010-2011	Manchester United	1
2011-2012	Manchester City	1
2012-2013	Manchester United	1
2013-2014	Manchester City	3
2014-2015	Chelsea	1
2015-2016	Leicester City	1
2016-2017	Chelsea	1
2017-2018	Manchester City	1
2018-2019	Manchester City	2
2019-2020	Liverpool	1
2020-2021	Manchester City	8
2021-2022	Manchester City	1
2022-2023	Manchester City	2
2023-2024	Manchester City	5
2024-2025	Liverpool	1

However, that trend has changed once again in recent seasons, with only three of the next seven champions leading the way at this time of year (43%).

Five of those titles have been won by City, and they only led the way at Christmas in one of those seasons.

This is perhaps evidence of a pattern that has become familiar under Guardiola: his teams improving in the second half of the season and going on lengthy winning runs in the new year. 

In the 2020/21 campaign, City were down in eighth at Christmas. However, because of the Covid pandemic and the season having a September start, there were fewer games played by December 25. Leaders Liverpool had played 14 games, with City only having played 13.

Guardiola's team went on to win the league by 12 points. Between December 19 and February 27 that season, they won 13 league games in a row. 

As mentioned, that is something Arteta will be particularly wary of, having had their top spot at Christmas taken by City in 2022/23 and 2023/24.

It will also be a concern given that Guardiola’s side are again showing signs of putting together a significant winning streak, having reduced their deficit to Arsenal from seven points to two in the space of a month, with five wins in their last five league games.

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But speaking after the win over Everton, Arteta spoke of a "consistency" in his side this season that will be key if they are to hold off the threat of City this time around. 

 "What gives me belief and confidence is the level of performance and the consistency of that," the Spaniard said. 

"That's very, very difficult to do in this league, and that means that the team is constantly there. 

"Enjoy the process of winning, and you're going to have to go to difficult places, you're going to have difficult moments, we have dealt with a lot of things already, and we are there."

But Guardiola is anticipating a close title race. "We will be there," he said. "If they follow me, we will be there, but we have to improve."

Since 2001/02, the team that has led at Christmas has never finished below third, but with Arsenal scarred by three successive second-placed finishes, this will be no consolation for Arteta’s men. 

Grim reading for Wolves

Down the other end of the division, the history books read ominously for Wolverhampton Wanderers, who are at the foot of the table with just two points after 17 games. 

Only once in the Premier League has a team had so few points at Christmas, with Sheffield United also amassing two points at this time of year in 2020/21 - and they had only played 14 times by that point.

Even the infamous Derby County team of 2007/08, who finished with a record-low 11 points, had taken seven points by December 25. 

Of the nine teams in the history of the league who had the fewest points at Christmas, six of those finished bottom, while the other three finished 19th. 

Team	Season	Games	Points	Christmas Day Position	Final Position
Sheffield United	2020-2021	14	2	20	20
Sunderland	2005-2006	17	5	20	20
Sheffield Wednesday	1999-2000	17	6	20	19
Southampton	2024-2025	17	6	20	20
Derby County	2007-2008	18	7	20	20
Aston Villa	2015-2016	17	7	20	20
West Bromwich Albion	2020-2021	14	7	19	19
Reading	2012-2013	18	9	20	19
Sheffield United	2023-2024	18	9	20	20

Regardless of the points tally, Wolves’ position in the table at this stage of the year points strongly to relegation. In each of the last 10 seasons, the team sat bottom at Christmas has gone down.

Meanwhile, things don’t look much better for Burnley and West Ham United, who occupy the other two spots in the drop zone. 

In the last nine seasons, 19 of the 27 teams in the relegation zone at Christmas have dropped down to the Championship (70%).

For Scott Parker's side, this would be the fifth successive season in which they have gone up or down, but for West Ham, it would see a 14-year stay in the Premier League come to an end.

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