Omens are good for holders Paris Saint-Germain and suggest they could face a repeat run to retain their Champions League title

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One of the big blockbuster UEFA Champions League round-of-16 ties sees Paris Saint-Germain face Chelsea live on TNT Sports and discovery+. The holders, despite not looking their sparkling best so far this campaign, still pose a major threat ahead of the first leg at the Parc des Princes as they chase back-to-back European titles.

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Following their impressive run in the competition and emphatic victory in the final last season, Paris Saint-Germain would have been many folks’ pick to lift the UEFA Champions League trophy again this season.

The 2024/25 campaign began with a slow-ish start during the league phase that saw them miss out on a top-eight finish, and forced them to navigate a play-off tie against a fellow Ligue 1 side, before being drawn against a Premier League team to kick-start their march to glory.

And now, history may well be repeating itself after Luis Enrique’s charges stuttered through the league phase, pairing them with domestic rivals Monaco in the play-offs, and victory rewarding them with a showdown against Chelsea.

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Should they get the better of the Londoners, they could potentially then face Liverpool in the quarter-finals, and then Manchester City in the semis, much like how they overcame three sides from England’s top flight last time out in the knockouts in the form of Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal.

Before the round of 16 first leg at the Parc des Princes, the holders go in as slight underdogs according to Opta’s Supercomputer, with a 48% chance of advancing against the Blues.

Their odds of reaching back-to-back finals are just under one in 10, while Opta see the chances of them repeating their heroics from Munich last year at just a 4% likelihood.

But again, last season demonstrated exactly why it is unwise to write off this incarnation of the Parisian giants, who upset the odds to claim their historic first title, which was rubber-stamped by a record-breaking 5-0 victory over Inter in the final.

UCL Predictor as of 10 March 2026

Image credit: Opta

During this year’s league phase, PSG could boast emphatic wins over Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen and Tottenham Hotspur, as well as an impressive win away to Barcelona to underline their credentials.

While a 2-1 home defeat to Bayern Munich was perhaps not totally unexpected, draws against Athletic Club and Newcastle, as well as defeat to Sporting, undermined their progress, setting up a closely-fought contest over two legs with Monaco.

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However, those big early wins mean that PSG come into the latest round as this season’s joint Champions League top scorers on 26 alongside Newcastle - albeit having played two matches more than next-best Arsenal (23) because of the play-off. They also have the highest xG at 23.2.

They have also taken considerably more shots than anyone else at a whopping 224, ahead of Real Madrid in second, who are some way back on 186.

PSG’s average possession of 69.6% is higher than anyone else, while they have also racked up more touches in the box than all the remaining teams with a hefty 404 - and top the charts for possession won in the final third with 60.

	Goals (xG)	Total Shots (inc. Blocks)	Possession (%)	Poss Won Final 1/3
Arsenal	23 (20.30)	135	54.5	45
Atalanta	14 (18.18)	141	52.1	36
Atlético de Madrid	24 (19.01)	152	51.3	44
Barcelona	22 (14.21)	140	64.4	37
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	15 (14.99)	113	52.3	33
Bodø/Glimt	19 (17.72)	113	46.7	35
Chelsea	17 (13.46)	112	57.4	39
FC Bayern München	22 (20.31)	139	58.4	44
Galatasaray	16 (17.34)	137	51.9	46
Liverpool	20 (21.48)	159	54.7	46
Manchester City	15 (14.35)	126	60.1	44
Newcastle United	26 (22.95)	145	50.5	50
Paris Saint-Germain	26 (23.22)	224	69.6	60
Real Madrid	24 (20.86)	186	57.8	46
Sporting CP	17 (11.13)	89	48.7	21
Tottenham Hotspur	17 (13.91)	100	50.7	38

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Video credit: TNT Sports

This impressive attacking threat is underlined by superb individual displays from the likes of Bradley Barcola, whose 23 chances created this season sees him ranked third in this category, while Desire Doue's six big chances created is joint-second most of all players in this season's competition.

Key to their dominance in the middle of the park is linchpin Vitinha, whose total of 1,028 successful passes this season is by far and away the most, with second place Aleix Garcia (Bayer Leverkusen) on 728.

The Portuguese maestro also leads the way this season for line-breaking passes (163) and final-third passes (284).

One category he finds himself only second is that of possession won, in which he only sits behind club-mate Nuno Mendes.

Vitinha UCL 25/26	Total	Rank
Successful Passes	1028	1
Line-Breaking Passes	163	1
Successful Passes ending in Final 1/3	284	1
Possession Won	64	2

Looking at the underlying numbers, Enrique’s side are still very much a team to fear in the competition, and could just be coming into bloom as the winter turns to spring once again.

Dembele return vital to PSG chances

One thing that will certainly influence and impact any progress PSG make in this season’s competition will be the form and crucially, fitness of Ousmane Dembele.

His eight goals and six assists were the driving force behind last season’s triumph, resulting in the attacker winning the Ballon d’Or for his efforts.

Things have been less fruitful so far this campaign, with injuries restricting him to just 270 minutes across six of the club’s 10 matches so far, and a return of just one goal and one assist to show for his efforts.

After his latest two-week absence, the 28-year-old was back in action for PSG in Ligue 1 at the weekend and could be in line for at least some minutes in Paris against Chelsea, with hopes of more action during the return leg in London.

Despite his limited minutes, Dembele still sits third overall of all players for chances created (per 90 minutes) in this season’s competition, highlighting his continued influence in the side, and how much his return would be welcomed by Enrique and his teammates.

Enrique: We are one of the favourites

Head coach Enrique addressed a potential hangover from last year's all-conquering success when speaking to TNT Sports ahead of the game.

"It's difficult to win after you won everything last season, but it's our hope to continue winning trophies for the club," he said.

"That's our mentality, that's our goal, and we are in the right position to do it."

Asked if his side can repeat last year's heroics, Enrique was certain.

"Of course. There are 16 teams who can win the Champions League, and we are one of the favourites."

How to watch Paris Saint-Germain v Chelsea?

Paris Saint-Germain v Chelsea will be live on TNT Sports 2 and discovery+.

TNT Sports is available across all major TV platforms, offering a line-up of up to four TV channels (TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 3, TNT Sports 4), and up to six digital or red-button channels (TNT Sports 5 to 10), and TNT Sports Ultimate plus TNT Sports Box Office HD.

You can subscribe to TNT Sports through discovery+, BT, EE, Sky, and Virgin Media.

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